上市公司财务困境预测的实证分析新探

A New Analysis of Forecast of the Listed Companies’ Financial Difficulty

以中国内地上市公司中ST公司为研究样本,通过配对样本的比较分析选出了五个财务指标,并以此建立ST公司被ST前5年的回归模型,再通过LPM回归估计出模型的参数,并用预先选取的样本进行超前预测的准确性检验,得到了具有超前5年预测效果的模型组。

This text studies the listed companies in companies of ST in Chinese continent as the sample.By comparison analysis the couples of sample paper select five financial ratio to establish regression models that can analyze the condition of the five years before they becoming ST,in which use the LPM regression model to calculate the parameter.Then test the model with the data that prepared before we study.Finally we obtain some models that can predict finance difficulty in five years.