储蓄率、投资率与经济增长之间的动态相关性研究——基于中国1978-2004年间的数据分析

Analysis of Dynamic Relationship among Savings Rate,Investment Rate and Economic Growth——Practical Research of China from 1979 to2004

文章根据1978-2004中国储蓄率、投资率与经济增长数据之间的动态相关性,建立向量自回归模型,并在此基础上使用脉冲响应函数、方差分解模型以及动态相关系数等方法进行了系统分析。研究结果表明:中国的高储蓄率、高投资率与经济增长相互之间有稳定正向的影响;其中,投资率对经济增长的贡献率不高,说明了投资效率不高,为了增强投资效率的产出效应,应该适度改善投资结构,提高投资效率。

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship among savings rate,investment rate and economic growth with the statistics from 1978 to 2004 in China,using the VAR model.Meanwhile,the methods of the impulse response,variance decomposition and dynamic coefficient are used in order to conduct the systematic analysis.The result is that savings rate,investment rate and economic growth have positive relationship in which the investment rate contribution to economic growth is low,reflecting the low efficiency of investment.The suggestion is that the structure of investment must be improved to enhance the efficiency of investment.