中国城乡金融结构与经济发展关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Urban and Rural Financial Structure and Economic Development in China

进入20世纪90年代以来,我国经济获得了年均8%以上的高速增长,成为了拉动世界经济发展的引擎。与此同时,我国金融业也得到了前所未有的发展,但是在发展的同时也使城乡金融结构出现了不平衡,这种城乡金融结构的不平衡与经济发展之间的关系也越来越受到重视。本文通过协整检验、向量自回归、脉冲响应函数以及方差分解的方法对经济发展和金融产业城乡结构的关系进行实证分析,表明城乡贷款结构会影响到经济发展,经济发展又会影响到城乡储蓄结构的变化,并由此证明了我国加大对农业和乡镇企业贷款的必要性。

Since 1990s, the economic development of our country has exceeded 8% yearly, becoming the engine of world economy. Correspondingly, the financial system has obtained unprecedented development. But at the same time, the rural and urban financial structure has become more unbalanced, which is given more and more attention. This paper tries to do some analysis on the relationship between economic growth and urban and rural financial structure via Cointegration test, Vector Autoregression, Impulse Responses Function, Variance Decomposition and draws several conclusions that the loan structure can influence the economic structure, while the economic development can affect saving structure. This paper also proves the necessity of increasing credit funds for agriculture and township enterprise.