通货膨胀与宏观经济关系实证分析——基于协整理论与误差修正模型

Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between Inflation and Macroeconomic System——Based on Cointegration Theory and ECM

选取投资、消费和出口三个方面,应用协整理论和误差修正模型分析通货膨胀与宏观经济之间的关系,发现通货膨胀在长期和短期都和投资呈现负相关关系;在长期中,通货膨胀对出口有一定的推动作用,但短期内这种作用很微弱;对城镇和农村人均收入,通货膨胀在长期和短期都有一定的阻碍作用,但不显著。

Selecting investment, consumption and exports, applying cointegration theory and error correction model to study the relationship between inflation and macroeconomic system, we found in both long and short term that there isa negative correlation between inflation and investment; and inflation has a certain role to promote export in the long term, but this role is very weak in the short term; and inflation also has a certain role to obstruct both urban and rural per capita income, not only in the long term but also in the short term, although this role is not significant.