企业生命周期的实证度量——基于现金流组合视角的分析

Empirical Measurement on Firm Life Cycle——An Analysis Based on the Perspective of Cash Flow Patterns

以现金流组合的视角将企业的生命周期划分为五个阶段,并从三个方面对生命周期划分标准的合理性加以了论证。实证结果表明,在中国上市公司中,处于不同企业生命周期,其经营行为、投资行为、融资行为、盈利能力、成长能力和其他相关的财务指标都呈现系统的变化。在实务中,成长型基金的选股策略与生命周期的划分具有高度的相似性,绝大部分公司都处于导入期、增长期和成熟期。另外,处于淘汰期和衰退期的上市公司出现退市预警的几率显著高于导入期、增长期和成熟期的几率。

Based on the perspective of cash flow patterns, firm life cycle is divided into five stages, then proves the rationality of division standard of life cycle from three aspects. Evidence reveals that for Chinese listed companies,the firm characteristics in each stage of life cycle,such as operation, investment, financing behavior, profitability, growth ability and other related financial ratios follow a systematic variation. In practice, the security selection strategy of growth funds shows high similarity with the classification of life cycle. Most companies are in introduction stage、growth stage and mature Stage. In addition, for Chinese listed companies,the probability of delisting warnings in the stage of shakeout and decline is significantly higher than that of the stage of introduction、growth and maturity.