基于GWR模型的我国房地产行业供需状况研究

An Supply-Demand Analysis of China Real Estate Industry Based on GWR Model

目前房地产行业作为国民经济中的支柱产业,因其存在严重的"非理性"投资和"泡沫"现象而备受诟病,有必要对房地产业的供需影响因素进行分析。考虑到地区差异性,实证部分利用地理加权回归模型(GWR)和聚类分析技术,从房地产供给和需求均衡的角度去探求我国30个省市的区域性房地产市场发展状况。实证表明,各影响因素对房地产市场供需状况的解释程度因地区而异,在GWR模型结果基础上,对30个省市各解释变量回归系数估计值进行地区聚类分析,发现聚类分析结果与行政划分一致。因此,从实证角度验证了我国房地产市场东、中、西部的发展不平衡,政府当局在进行宏观调控时应该基于地区差异采取具有针对性的举措。

Recently,as a pillar industry in national economy,the real estate industry has been heavily criticized,because of its serious ’irrational’ investment and ’bubble’ phenomenon.It’s necessary to analyze the impact on the real estate supply and demand from factors.Taking the regional differences into consideration,from the perspective of real estate supply and demand equilibrium,the geographical weighted regression model is put forward to explore the regional real estate market conditions of China’s thirty provinces and cities.The empirical results show that,the explanation power of influential factors such as economic growth rate,level of urbanization varies by region.On the basis of GWR,cluster analysis technique is brought in to make a persuasive regional classification of China’s real estate market.Either in terms of administrative divisions or the results from the clustering analysis,the development of China’s eastern,central and western real estate markets are unbalanced.It is recommended that the government should take the regional differences into consideration when implementing the macro-control.