我国金融形势指数的构建及与通货膨胀关联性的研究

Construction of Chinese FCI and the Analysis of Its Relationship with CPI

随着经济的不断发展,资产价格已经逐渐成为货币政策的主要传递渠道。文章通过构建包括真实股权价格指数、房地产价格指数、真实短期利率、真实有效汇率以及货币因素在内的金融形势指数FCI,分别对以人民币贷款额和社会融资规模作为货币因素的两种FCI与通货膨胀指标CPI的关系进行了实证研究。研究发现,社会融资规模和人民币贷款规模均对CPI具有一定程度的预测作用,其中社会融资规模的效果更优,应作为货币政策的制定依据。

With the continuous development of economy,asset prices have gradually become the main channel of monetary policy transmission. This paper constructs financial condition index (FCI) ,including the real stock price index,the real estate price index,real short term interest rates,real effective exchange rate and monetary factors,to do respective empirical research to RMB loans and social financing scale as monetary factors of two kinds of FCI and analyzes their relationship with inflation index CPI. Study Shows that both two currency indexes could predict the CPI to some extent,besides,social financing scale has a more satisfactory predicting effect,so it could be used as the basis to make monetary policy.