中国版“IFRS”改善了证券分析师盈余预测吗?

Does Chinese IFRS Improve Security Analysts’ Forecast?

中国于2007年采用与IFRS趋同的新会计准则,现有研究表明会计准则变更影响证券分析师预测。以2002—2011年A股上市公司为样本,从准确度、分歧度、关注度、偏误四个方面研究了中国采用IFRS对证券分析师预测的影响。研究发现:新会计准则实施后,证券分析师预测偏误、分歧度、关注度提高了,准确度降低了;但是四大审计作为企业执行准则的监督和指导机制,可以降低新会计准则的负面影响,加强其正面影响。

China began to implement new accounting standards which are similar to IFRS since 2007. Research shows that analysts’ forecast will be influenced by accounting standards’ change. So this paper selects all A- share listed companies in 2002—2011 as the research sample and analyzes the influence of the change of accounting standards on analysts forecast accuracy,dispersion,analyst following and bias. The study finds that analysts’ forecast has shown a de- crease in accuracy,an increase in error,dispersion and analyst following after the implementation of Chinese IFRS. Act- ing as the supervision and guidance mechanism of enterprise,big4 can reduce the negative effect and enhance the posi- tive effect of Chinese new accounting standard.