中国地方政府债务风险评估——基于我国东部某省的实证分析

The Assessment and Study About China’s Local Government Debt Risk——Empirical Analysis Based on Eastern Province

地方政府的债务问题,是制约经济社会发展的重要因素。选取债务依存度、GDP增速与债务增速比、债务偿还率和债务负担率等指标,研究地方政府债务存在的风险。对东部某省近十年的数据进行实证分析,结果表明,以该省为代表,我国地方政府债务尽管在有些年份风险较小,但是在有些年份已经达到非常严重的地步。为防范债务风险,应规范地方政府债务的统计标准,拓宽地方政府债务融资渠道和手段,以及加强地方政府债务规模管理。

Local government debt problems are an important factor in economic and social development. This paper select dependence degree of debt,the ratio between the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of debt,debt repayment rate and the debt burden ratio and other indicators,to study the debt risk of local government. Through having a empirical analysis on nearly a decade date of one province in the eastern,the results showed that as the representative of the province,although in the years some of China’s local government debt have less risk,in some years the risk of debt has reached a very serious stage. To guard against the risk of debt,we should standardize the statistical standards of local government debt,broaden the means of financing and strengthen the management of government debt ’scale.