我国房地产市场与金融市场发展关系——基于2003-2014年月度数据的实证分析

The Analysis of the Relation between the Real Estate and the Financial Market——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Monthly Data from 2003 to 2014

房地产市场与金融市场的良性循环对于我国国民经济的发展有着至关重要的影响,尤其是加入WTO以来,随着房地产市场和金融市场建设的推进和体制的成熟,两者之间的联系不断加强,相互作用也越来越明显。利用2003-2014年的月度数据,采用误差修正模型(ECM)讨论并分析了我国房地产市场与金融市场发展之间的关系特征。结果表明:我国房地产市场与金融市场之间存在一定的均衡关系;房地产市场对信贷市场依赖最强烈,保险业次之;证券市场最小;房地产市场增长对银行业中介机构发展的促进作用具有滞后性。

The virtuous cycle between the real estate and financial market is of great significance to the development of the economy in China. Especially after the access of WTO,the relation between these markets has been strengthened with the construction of these markets and the economic system. By using the monthly data from 2003 to 2014,we analyze the characteristics of these two markets with the ECM model. The result shows that there is an equilibrium relationship between the real estate and financial market and the real estate market is relying heavily on the credit market though the facilitation of the real estate market on the development of banks and other financial intermediaries usual lags.