固定资产投资对经济增长的影响分析——基于传递函数模型

The Analysis of the Impact of Fixed Asset Investment on Economic Growth——Based on Transfer Function Model

在当前的经济形势下,投资的重要性日益凸显,对促进经济增长发挥着关键作用。为了分析固定资产投资与经济增长之间的动态关系,在简要介绍了传递函数模型原理的基础上,利用这一模型对1980—2014年的全社会固定资产投资和GDP数据进行了实证分析。结果显示,固定资产投资对经济增长的拉动效应十分显著,GDP受到固定资产投资滞后一期值的影响,即当年的固定资产投资会刺激下一年的经济增长。随后利用拟合的模型对未来四期进行预测,预测结果逐年上升,且幅度不断增大,大体符合国内生产总值的发展趋势。

Consumption,investment and exports are considered to be the"three carriages"of economic growth. Under the current economic situation,the importance of investment is increasingly prominent,which plays a key role in promoting economic growth. In order to analyze the dynamic relationship between investment in fixed assets and economic growth,this paper briefly introduces the transfer function model,and then uses the model to analyze the whole society fixed assets investment and GDP data from 1980 to 2014. The results show that the pull effect of fixed asset investment on economic growth is very significant,and the GDP is influenced by the fixed asset investment lagged behind a period.Then the model is used to predict the future of the four periods,and it is in line with the development trend of GDP.