山东省经济增长的区域性差异及驱动因素分析——基于空间计量模型的研究

Regional Differences of Economic Growth in Shandong Province and Driving Factors——Research on Spatial Econometric Model

随着各种区域性经济区的建立,区域经济发展不平衡成为当今中国不得不面对的问题,本文以山东省为例,以其17地市为研究对象,通过加权变异系数、泰尔指数与基尼系数的测算,得出各地市的经济增长差距逐渐减小的结论。并且,进一步运用ESDA法进行空间依懒性与差异性分析,利用空间滞后模型对影响山东省经济增长的驱动力进行说明。结果发现,山东省各地市经济发展不平衡比较严重,在影响该区域经济增长的因素中,工业化、产业结构、人力资本、外商投资都对区域经济增长产生正向作用。因此,加强17地市区域合作,促进产业结构合理化,大力增加教育投入,提高中西部城市的外商投资吸引力是实现山东省区域协调发展的有力措施。

With the establishment of all kinds of regional economic zones,the imbalance of regional economic development has become a problem that China has to face today. This paper taking Shandong Province as an example and taking the 17 cities in Shandong Province as the objects of this research,calculates the weighted coefficient of variation,the Theil index and Gini coefficient. We can draw a conclusion that the gap of economic growth between the 17 cities is gradually decreasing. At the same time,this paper analyzes the spatial dependence and the difference by ESDA method. And the spatial lag model was established to explain the driving force of economic growth in Shandong province.The results show that the imbalance in economic development of the cities in Shandong province is serious. In the factors that affect the regional economic growth,the industry,structure,human capital and FDI have a positive effect on regional economic growth. Therefore,to strengthen the 17 cities of regional cooperation,promote the rationalization of industrial structure,increase investment in education,and improve the midwest city foreign investment attraction are the effective measures to realize the regional coordinated development in Shandong province.