金融发展与经济增长的非线性关系研究——基于中国省际面板数据的双门槛效应

The Nonlinear Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth——Based on The Double Threshold Effect research on Chinese Provincial Panel Data

文章利用2000-2013年中国省际面板数据,采用Hansen双门槛效应回归对金融发展与经济增长的非线性关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:根据金融发展对经济增长的传导机制来看,在金融发展效率和经济增长二者的约束下,金融发展规模对经济增长的影响存在双重门槛效应;只有当经济增长和金融发展效率超过一定的门槛值后,金融发展规模对于经济增长的贡献才会起到显著的促进作用,在低水平阶段则相反。对研究期内各省区门槛变量分析表明,在经济增长的贡献中金融发展效率对金融发展的约束高于地区经济增长。因此,在金融发展过程中要首先跨越金融发展效率的门槛约束,其次跨越自身经济水平的门槛。最后根据实证分析的结果提出了政策性建议。

By using Chinese provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013,this paper studies the nonlinear relationship of financial development and economic growth based on Hansen double threshold effect regression.The results show that the influence of financial development scale to economic growth exists double threshold effect based on the transmission mechanism of financial development to economic growth because of the constraint of economic development growth and financial efficiency.Only when both of them are over the value of certain threshold,the contribution of financial development scale to economic growth will play a significant role in promoting,otherwise the low level is opposite.Specifically,this paper based on the threshold value of each province.Therefore,the process of financial development should cross the threshold of he financial development efficiency firstly,and then cross the threshold of their own economic.According to the empirical analysis results,the policy suggestions are put forward.