保险发展与经济增长——基于ARDL-ECM模型的估计

Insurance Development and Economic Growth:an Estimate Based on the ARDL-ECM Model

本文采用48个国家1996-2014年的数据,使用ARDL-ECM模型考察了保险发展对经济增长的短期和长期效应。结果表明,在长期,保险发展与经济增长之间显著正相关,保险对经济增长的促进作用存在长期性;而在短期,保险发展显著抑制了经济增长。除此之外,本文还发现保险深度对经济发达体人均GDP的促进作用要大于对不发达经济体人均GDP的促进作用。

Based on the data of 48 countries in 1996-2014,this paper uses ARDL-ECM model to study the short-term and long-term effects of insurance development on economic growth. The results show that,the insurance development and economic growth are significantly positively correlated,the insurance promotes the economic growth in the long-term and insurance development significantly inhibits economic growth in the short term. In addition,this paper also finds that the promotion of insurance depth to the per capita GDP growth of the economy is greater than the promotion of the per capita GDP growth of the less developed economies.