房地产市场泡沫及其金融风险研究——基于国际间数据的对比分析

The Analysis of Real Estate Bubble and Correlative Financial Risk——A Comparison of International Data

房地产投资在GDP中占有很大比重,过去十年中一直是国民经济的增长点,房地产业在促进国民经济增长的同时也引发了一些值得关注的问题。选取2003-2014年的数据,测算出我国房地产投资占GDP比重、房价收入比、地价指数,与日本和香港上世纪房地产市场发生严重泡沫时期的对应指标进行对比,分析我国当前房地产市场的泡沫问题,并在此基础上分析房地产泡沫蕴藏的潜在金融风险。认为我国现阶段存在一定程度的房地产泡沫,并面临值得警惕的金融风险。

Real estate industry occupies a large proportion in GDP,and it has been the growth point of the national economy over the past decade. China’s real estate industry is currently at a high plateau,at the background of macro economic slowdown,the real estate industry is facing enormous challenges of sustainable development. The burst of real estate bubble has hit economy greatly and triggered serious financial risks in Japan and the US,the real estate bubble and its correlative financial risk should be given adequate attention. In recent years,whether there exists serious bubble in china’s real estate market caused a lot of controversy in the academic community. By analyzing the real estate bubble and its correlative financial risks together,the article real estate bubble surely exists in China and faces the correlative financial risk.