计及风险成本的输电网扩展规划

Transmission Network Expansion Planning Taking Into Account the Cost of Risk

输电网扩展规划是一个非常复杂的非线性组合优化问题。在输电网扩展规划中既要满足一定的可靠性,也要考虑规划的经济性,如果过度追求网架的可靠性水平,则存在投资过大、不够经济的问题。由于电力系统行为具有随机性的特点,其发生事故的风险是客观存在的,通过投资可降低风险水平,但是不能够完全消除风险。提出一种考虑规划的潜在风险损失即风险成本的输电网扩展规划模型,使规划方案能综合考虑方案的经济性及风险水平,最后通过算例分析验证所提方法的合理性、可行性。

Transmission network expansion planning is a very complex nonlinear combinatorial optimization problem. In the transmission network expansion planning, it is necessary to meet certain reliability requirement, but also should consider the economy of the expansion planning. If reliability level of the grid is pursued too much, there will exist the problems of outsized investments and being not cost effective. Due to the fact that the behavior of the power system has the characteristic of randomness, there objectively exists the risk of accidents. The risk level can be reduced through investments, but the risk cannot be completely eliminated. A transmission network expansion planning model, which considers the potential risk of losses i.e. the cost of risk, is proposed. This enables the planning to take into account the economy and risk level of the scheme. Finally, the rationality and feasibility of the proposed planning is verified through analyses of a numerical example.