析不确定性对居民消费的影响

The Effects of Uncertainty on Residents' Consumption

在不确定性基础上的消费理论的指导下,利用我国城镇时间序列数据,对不确定性如何影响居民消费进行深入研究,结论表明:支出的不确定性和收入的不确定性及其变化对居民消费影响很大。在收入不确定性中起主要作用的是劳动收入的不确定性;利率对居民消费的影响很小,而且在统计上不显著。根据研究结论可以采取扩大消费,扩大内需的政策以刺激消费。

Based on the consumption theory in the presence of uncertainty, the paper studies empirically how uncertainty affects consumption behaviors of Chinese residents by using China urban time-serial data, the result shows that expenditure uncertainty and income uncertainty have large influence on the decision, especially labor income uncertainty. Other factors, for example, interest rate is not statistically significant. According to the result, the paper proposes policies to increase consumption and domestic demand.