多风险因素影响下的水库防洪调度风险综合评估研究

Risk Assessment of Reservoir Operation for Flood Control Considering Multiple Risk Factors

汛限水位是水库协调防洪与兴利关系的关键控制点,合理设置汛限水位,是实现洪水资源化的重要途径。在考虑多种风险因素影响下,构建风险综合评估指标体系,建立综合评估模型,对水库防洪调度风险进行综合评估;以陆浑水库为例,探讨了多种汛限水位方案的可行性;结果表明:在考虑设计洪水过程、洪水预报误差、水库调度滞时、水位-库容关系四种风险因素影响下,陆浑水库前汛期汛限水位可抬高至318.7 m,兴利库容可增加0.64 m^3;后汛期汛限水位可抬高至319.2 m,兴利库容可增加0.66 m^3。该研究为水库防洪调度风险综合评估研究提供了技术支撑,并为陆浑水库实际防洪调度风险研究了提供科学参考。

The flood limit water level is the key control point for the reservoir to coordinate the flood control and the profit promotion. The rational setting of the flood limit water level is an important way to realize the flood resource utilization. Under the influence of a variety of risk factors, this paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system of risk and a comprehensive evaluation model, and comprehensively evaluates the risk of reservoir flood control. Taking the Luhun Reservoir as an example, this paper discusses the feasibility of various flood limit water level schemes. The results show that the design flood process, flood forecast error, and the error of flood forecast are considered. Under the influence of four risk factors, the stagnation time of reservoir operation and the relationship between water level and reservoir capacity, the limit water level of the flood season of the Luhun Reservoir can be raised to 318.7 m, and the capacity of Xingli Reservoir can be increased by 0.64 m^3, and the limit water level of the flood season can be raised to 319.2 m, and the capacity of Xingli Reservoir can be increased by 0.66 m^3. This study provides technical support for the risk assessment of reservoir flood control operation, and provides scientific reference for the risk control of flood control in Luhun Reservoir.