基于熵权TOPSIS和ESDA的甘肃县域经济时空演变

County Economy in Gansu: Spatio-temporal Evolution Based on Entropy Weight TOPSIS and ESDA

为揭示甘肃省经济发展状况,本研究以甘肃省86个县域及嘉峪关市共87个地域为研究单元,选取人均GDP、第二三产业比重等12项相关指标建立了县域经济发展水平综合评价体系,利用熵权TOPSIS法和ESDA法对1995—2015年甘肃省各县域经济发展水平进行时间和空间2个方面的评测。结果表明:1995—2015年,甘肃省经济明显增长,但与全国各地经济发展水平相比还处于缓慢发展阶段;甘肃省县域经济发展水平两极差异明显,排名靠前及靠后的县域在20年间变化不明显,省会兰州及河西地区发展水平较高,陇中和陇南地区县域发展水平整体较低,呈现'强者恒强,弱者恒弱'的格局;空间自相关性显著,低值聚类的显著性更强;热点分析显示,甘肃省县域经济呈现明显的单核型经济空间结构,发展水平较高的地区对周边城市带动作用很小,地域差异明显。

The paper aims to reveal the economic development of Gansu. We took a total of 87 regions(86 counties and Jiayuguan) in Gansu as the research unit and selected 12 related indexes, including the per capita GDP, the proportion of the second industry and proportion of the third industry and so on, to establish a comprehensive evaluation system of the county economic development level, and evaluated the economic development level of every region in Gansu during 1995-2015 from the aspects of time and space by using themethods of entropy TOPSIS and ESDA. The results showed that: from 1995 to 2015, the economy of Gansuincreased significantly, but it was still in a slow development stage compared with the level of economicdevelopment across the country;the differences of the county economy in Gansu was obvious, the top andbottom counties did not change significantly during 1995-2015, Lanzhou and Hexi area had a higher level ofdevelopment, county development level was low in Longzhong and Longnan, the pattern was'strong constantstrong, weak constant weak';the spatial autocorrelation was significant and the low value clustering was moresignificant;the hotspot analysis showed that: the county economy of Gansu had obvious monocular economicspatial structure, and the area with high development level had little effect on the surrounding cities, and the regional difference was obvious.