鹤壁市粮食耕地人口承载力评价

Population Carrying Capacity of Grain Cultivated Land in Hebi City: An Evaluation

为研究鹤壁市当前及未来一段时期内不同生活水平下的粮食耕地人口承载状况,通过线性回归分析,对鹤壁市人口、粮食进行预测,并设定了温饱型、小康型、富裕型3种生活水平消费标准,在此基础上借助土地资源承载力模型评价鹤壁市耕地粮食人口情况。发现2006—2016年耕地粮食产量能够完全满足全市人口需求,并有一定盈余;2017—2030年耕地粮食人口承载力在温饱和小康生活水平下不超载,并且有一定量的粮食盈余,在温饱和小康水平下分别可额外养活40.5万人和16.33万人;2017—2030年耕地粮食人口承载力在富裕型生活标准下轻微超载,粮食供应有少量缺口,缺口范围1.42万～1.5万t。鹤壁市未来一个时期保护耕地数量、提高耕地质量及耕地粮食产量仍然具有重大的现实意义。

To study the population carrying capacity of grain cultivated land in Hebi City at present and in the future,the population and grain production in Hebi City were predicted through linear regression analysis,and three food consumption levels were set up,including subsistence,well-off and richness.Based on this,the cultivated land grain population of Hebi City was evaluated with land resources carrying capacity model.The results showed that the grain output of cultivated land in 2006-2016 could fully meet the population demand of the whole city and also had a certain surplus.In 2017-2030,the grain population carrying capacity of cultivated land will not overload in the food consumption level of subsistence and well-off,and there will be a certain amount of grain surplus,which can feed 405000 people and 163300 people extra respectively;in 2017-2030,the carrying capacity of cultivated land will slightly overload in the food consumption level of richness,and there will be a small shortage in grain supply of 14200-15000 t.Thus,it is of great significance to protect cultivated land quantity and improve cultivated land quality and grain yield in Hebi City in the future.