化橘红始花期与气象因子的相关分析及预报模型

Correlation Analysis and Prediction Model of Citrus grandis ‘Tomentosa’ Initial Flowering Period and Meteorological Factors

为研究化橘红开花规律,预测化橘红开花时间,为化州市开展化橘红观赏旅游活动提供技术支持,笔者利用2012—2018年化州市化橘红物候观测资料与同期气象观测数据,对化橘红始花期与气象因子进行相关分析,并建立化橘红始花期预报模型。结果表明,化橘红始花期与部分月份的温度、日照、雨日、最高温度等相关度较高,其中1月地面平均温度(X_1)对化州市化橘红始花期的影响最大,其次是上年10月日照时数(X_2)和1月下旬平均最低气温(X_3)。采用逐步回归方法,得到化州市化橘红始花期的预报模型Y=122.0427-2.9445X_1-0.1341X_2-0.7358X_3。利用该模型对化橘红始花期进行回测,误差在0～1天,准确率较高。对2018年化橘红始花期日期进行预测,预测值与实际观测值之间相差1天,预报值基本吻合。建立的预测模型能准确预测化州市化橘红始花期。

This thesis aims to study the flowering rule and predict the flowering time of Citrus grandis‘Tomentosa’,thus to provide a meteorological service basis for ornamental activities of C.grandis‘Tomentosa’cultural festival.The correlation between the initial flowering period of C.grandis‘Tomentosa’and meteorological factors was analyzed by using the phenological observation data of C.grandis‘Tomentosa’from2012 to 2018 and the meteorological observation data of the same period,and the prediction model of the initial flowering period of C.grandis‘Tomentosa’was established.The results showed that the initial flowering period of C.grandis‘Tomentosa’had a high correlation with temperature,sunshine,rainy day and maximum temperature in certain months.The surface average temperature(X1)in January had the greatest influence on the initial flowering period of C.grandis‘Tomentosa’,followed by sunshine hours(X2)in October last year and the average minimum temperature(X3)in late January.By stepwise regression method,the prediction model of the first flowering period of C.grandis‘Tomentosa’was obtained:Y=122.0427-2.9445X1-0.1341X2-0.7358X3.Using this model,the initial flowering period of C.grandis‘Tomentosa’was measured,the error was0-1 day,and the accuracy was high.The initial flowering date of C.grandis‘Tomentosa’in 2018 was predicted.The difference between the predicted value and the observed value was 1 day,and the predicted value was basically consistent.The established prediction model can accurately predict the initial flowering period of C.grandis‘Tomentosa’in Huazhou.