中国小麦面积种植结构时空动态变化分析

Analysis of Spatial-temporal Dynamic Change of Wheat Planting Structure of China

区域尺度小麦种植面积格局分析是农作物种植结构调整的主要依据。本文基于以往8个年份的31个省(市、自治区)小麦种植面积统计数据,系统分析了小麦种植面积空间分布规律及动态变化特征,以及产量与面积空间分布格局的关系。8个年份小麦种植面积变化趋势线斜率为-0.37,总体呈下降趋势。将小麦种植面积分为中东部小麦集中种植区、北部小麦次种植区和南部小麦次种植区3个区域,8个年份种植面积平均值占比分别为70.09%、13.47%(不包括黑龙江省)和12.61%,呈增加、减少与减少的趋势,变异系数分别为0.06、0.22和0.25。上述研究结果表明,中东部区域小麦面积具有更高的种植稳定性且向区域集中的趋势较为明显,而北部区域小麦种植面积的减少是造成全国小麦种植面积减少的主要原因。各省单产与种植面积占比的相关关系在99%水平上达到了显著相关,单产优势也是种植区集中较为重要的原因。中东部区域小麦种植面积的稳定是中国小麦种植面积稳定的保证;虽然北部、南部区域小麦种植面积比例相对较低,但遏制其面积降低的态势,并努力提升该区域的种植面积有利于中国小麦种植面积的稳定。

Analysis of wheat planting area distribution pattern in a regional scale is the major basis for crop planting structure adjustment.Based on the statistical data of wheat planting area of 31 provinces(municipalities,and autonomous regions)of eight years,the paper systematically analyzed the wheat planting area spatial distribution pattern and dynamical change features,as well as the relation between production output and planting area spatial distribution pattern.The slope of trend line of wheat planting area change of eight years was-0.37,showed a downtrend in general.The wheat planting areas were divided into three areas:central and eastern major wheat concentration planting area,northern secondary wheat planting area and southern secondary wheat planting area,with the average proportion of the planting area in eight years was70.09%,13.47%(without Heilongjiang)and 12.61%respectively,showed increase,decrease and decrease trends respectively,with the variable coefficient of 0.06,0.22 and 0.25 respectively.The above study indicated that,the wheat planting area of central and eastern area had higher stability,and showed a notable regional concentration,while the decrease of planting area of northern area was the primary cause of the decrease of the wheat planting area of the whole country.Correlation between per unit yield and the proportion of planting area was significant in the level of 99%,and the advantage of per unit yield was also the important reason for planting area concentration.The stability of wheat planting area in central and eastern area ensured the stability of the wheat planting area of the country.Although the proportion of wheat planting area in northern and southern areas was relatively low,but restraining the decreasing trend of planting area of these areas and improving the planting area of these areas will be conductive to the stability of the wheat planting area of the country.