气候变化科学事实及其相关问题争论评述

Review of the Debates on Scientific Facts of Climate Change and Related Issues

当前气候政策已实施了几十年之久,但围绕着气候变化的争论始终存在,而且愈演愈烈。本文通过研究,疏理了当前在气候变化科学事实和形成原因的争论,在气候预测模型和影响评估的争论,在气候变化科学认知以及气候资源属性的争论,试图从哲学角度提出这些争论的根源:即需要另辟蹊径解决气候变化研究的不确定问题;加强气候变化科学自主性的研究;优先权制度成为了气候变化科学研究的一把双刃剑,注重对气候变化重大问题顶层设计,注重科学传播的重要性。

The current climate policy has been implemented for decades,however,the debates around climate change have been existing and persistently intensifying.In this article,we firstly clarify the current debates on the scientific facts and the causes of climate change;the debates on climate prediction models and impact assessments;the debates on scientific cognition of climate change and the attributes of climate resources.Secondly,we attempt to interpret the origin of these debates from a philosophical perspective.We think that a new path need be found to solve the uncertainties in climate change researches and to strengthen the scientific autonomy of these researches.Considering priority system has become a double-edged sword for scientific researches of climate change,the top design of major issues of climate change and importance of communication of science must be reinforced.