甘肃省2013年乙型病毒性肝炎空间聚集性分析

Spatial aggregate analysis of hepatitis B in Gansu province of China in 2013

目的分析2013年甘肃省乙型病毒性肝炎(乙肝)报告发病率的时空分布特征,探索乙肝的发病聚集区,为乙肝防治策略提供科学依据。方法采用开源软件Geo-Da 1.60进行空间自相关分析,使用FleXScanV3.1进行时空聚集性分析,最后采用Map Info7.0软件将探测结果可视化。结果甘肃省2013年乙肝发病率的全局自相关系数Moran′s I为0.289 2(P=0.002),具有显著的聚集性分布特征。局部空间自相关分析显示临潭县、碌曲县及玛曲县呈现高值聚集状态(P<0.05),为2013年乙肝发病"热点"区域;嘉峪关市、会宁县、甘州区、高台县、通渭县、陇西县、崆峒区、崇信县、安定区、靖远县呈现低值聚集区(P<0.05),为2013年乙肝发病"冷点"区域。空间不规则扫描分析显示共发现碌曲县、凉州区、徽县、西峰区、广河县5个区域及各自周边县区为乙肝发病聚集区域。结论甘肃省乙型病毒性肝炎发病率具有空间聚集性,最有可能聚集的为甘南州,向定西及临夏延伸,另外有四个聚集区域分别在武威、金昌,天水陇南,庆阳,临夏,是今后甘肃省乙肝防控的重点区域。

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of the reported hepatitis B in Gansu province of China in 2013. Methods Open source software Geo-Da1.60 was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis,FleXScanV3.1for space-time clustering analysis,and Map Info7.0for result visualization. Results The global autocorrelation coefficient of hepatitis B incidence in Gansu province of China in 2013 was 0.289 2(P=0.002),indicating a significant aggregation of hepatitis B.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that Lintan,Luqu and Maqu counties presented higher value aggregation state(P<0.05)and these counties were the incidence of hepatitis B ' hot spots' while other districts including Jiayuguan city and Huining,Ganzhou,Gaotai,Tongwei,Longxi,Kongtong,Chunxin,Anding,Jingyuan counties presented lower value aggregation state(P<0.05).The analysis of spatial irregular scans showed that Luqu,Liangzhou,Hui,Xifeng,Guanghe counties and their surrounding counties were the hepatitis B clustered areas. Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis B in Gansu province of China showed spatial clustering,and high-risk areas were from Gannan extending to Dingxi and Linxia,and in addition,there were four hepatitis B clustered areas in wuwei and jinchang counties,respectively.Tianshui,Longnan,Qingyang,Linxia counties were the key areas for hepatitis B control and prevention in the future in Gansu province of China.