2016-2017年河北省流行性感冒病例时空分布特征分析

Time-space distribution of influenza illness in Hebei provice of China from 2016 to 2017

目的分析2016-2017年河北省流行性感冒(流感)时空分布特征,为流感的防控提供科学依据。方法收集传染病报告信息管理系统中河北省2016-2017年流感监测资料,进行全局及局部空间自相关分析和时空聚集性分析,并进行可视化展示。结果 2016-2017年,河北省共报告流行性感冒病例67 868例,年均报告发病率为45.56/10万,2017年报告发病率最高,为52.28/10万。全局空间自相关分析结果显示,Moran′s I系数均大于0(P<0.05),提示流感发病存在聚集性。局部自相关分析结果显示,高值聚集地区主要分布在河北省南部和中部部分地区,低值聚集地区主要分布在东部唐山和秦皇岛地区。时空扫描分析进一步分析显示一级高发聚集地区主要集中在邯郸和廊坊地区。高发聚集时间主要集中在冬季。结论 2016-2017年河北省流感发病存在明显的时空聚集性,重点地区应加强防控。

Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of influenza in Hebei province during 2016 and 2017.Methods The influenza data from 2016 to 2017 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Management Information System.Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis,spatial visualization and temporal-spatial analysis were performed.Results A total of 67 868 influenza cases were reported with an annual incidence rate at 45.56/100 000 population in Hebei province of China from 2016 to 2017,and the incidence in 2017 was higher at 52.28/100 000.The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran′s I co-efficients were above 0(P<0.05),suggesting that there was a spatial aggregation between space and the incidence of influenza.Local indicators of spatial association analysis revealed that the high-high clusters were mainly distributed in the southern and central parts of Hebei province,while the low-low clusters were in Tangshan and Qinhuangdao areas.It was showed that the primary high incidence areas were mainly concentrated in Handan and Langfang districts by Spatio-temporal analysis.The peak season was in winter.Conclusions Influenza epidemic has obvious temporal and spatial aggregation in Hebei province of China during 2016 and 2017.