地震灾害损失评估新方法

A new method for earthquake disaster loss assessment

地震灾害直接经济损失评估是地震工程学的重要研究内容。文章回顾了地震灾害损失评估的研究进展,结合现有评估方法的特点,分析了地震灾害承灾体的经济属性。从国民经济核算体系选取非金融有形资产,针对分类清单法的破坏比、损失比,采用统计指数方法进行了归一化处理,计算得到了灾害损失综合系数,提出了基于国民经济核算指标的新的评估方法,该方法的评估结果既体现了承灾体的工程属性,又体现了经济属性。新方法既可以应用于灾害总损失评估、区域损失评估,更适用于行业损失评估。

Direct economic loss evaluation of earthquake disaster is an important research content of earthquake engineering. This paper reviewed the research progress of the earthquake disaster loss assessment,and analyzed the economic attribute of seismic hazard-affected bodies considering the features of the existing evaluation methods. Taking the non-financial tangible assets of national economy accounting system as an example,aiming at the failure ratio and loss ratio in the classification list,and using the statistic index method to conduct the normalization analysis,this paper calculated the comprehensive disaster loss coefficient and proposed a new method for assessing earthquake disaster loss. The assessment results of the proposed method reflect both engineering and economic attributes of the hazard-affected body. The new method can be applied to not only the general disaster-loss assessment,but also the regional loss assessment,especially the industrial loss assessment.