我国地震灾害应急协同决策系统可靠性建模与仿真

Modeling and simulaton of reliability of earthquake disaster emergency coordination decision-making system in China

为提高地震灾害应急管理能力,快速平息地震发生后现场的混乱情况,在有限的条件下做出科学、系统、高质量的决策,保证应急救援工作的及时有效,对我国地震灾害应急协同决策系统可靠性进行了研究。在理论分析和国内地震灾害应急救援案例的基础上,参照《国家地震应急预案》、相关法律法规和文献资料,对地震灾害应急协同决策系统可靠性概念进行了界定,划分了参与地震灾害救援过程中的应急协同决策主体,构建了决策主体间的关联关系,建立了地震灾害应急协同决策系统可靠性测度模型,并结合问卷调查确定了属性参数,应用多主体仿真软件进行了地震灾害应急协同决策系统可靠性仿真,得到了社会公众满意度的变化趋势。这种方法为度量地震灾害应急协同决策系统可靠性提供理了论根据,并具有实际操作性。

In order to improve the capability of earthquake disaster emergency management,quickly quell chaos scene,make scientific,systemic,high-quality decisions with limited conditions,and ensure the timely and effective emergency rescue work,this paper studied the modeling and simulation of the reliability of the earthquake disaster emergency coordination decision-making system(EDECDS) in China.Based on theoretical analysis and the earthquake disaster emergency rescue cases at home,according to'National Earthquake Emergency Plan'and relevant laws and regulations,the concept about EDECDS reliability was defined,and 8 decision-making subjects are defined with associated relationships.Then reliability measurement model was established.Attribute parameters were determined with questionnaire survey,EDECDS reliability was simulated with multi-subject simulation software,and then the trend of social public satisfaction was obtained.This method provides the theoretical basis of the reliability measure of the earthquake disaster emergency collaborative decision-making system,and has practical maneuverability.