地震紧急救援区域优先度判定模型研究

Discrimination model of priority of seismic emergency rescue zone

震后如何快速获取灾情,判定救灾重点区域,部署救援力量是减少人员伤亡的重要途径。根据历史地震应急处置案例,列举了地震紧急救援区域优先度判定应当考虑的主要指标,设计调查问卷,采用德尔菲法筛选了主要影响因子及其权重系数,构建了地震紧急救援区域优先度判定模型。以汶川8.0级地震为例对模型进行了验证分析,模拟计算结果表明,紧急救援优先区域与实际救援重点区域吻合,验证了模型可靠性和实用性,为地震应急救援力量的调配提供了一定理论依据和技术支撑。

When an earthquake occurs,it is urgent to obtain the disaster information,to determine the key relief areas,and to deploy the rescue forces in order to reduce casualties.Referring to the historical cases of earthquake emergency response,we put forward some main factors for the determination of the priority of the emergency rescue area.Then,through the Delphi method,we made a questionnaire to screen these main factors and gave their own weighing coefficients.Thus,we built a discrimination model of the priority of the emergency rescue area.Further,the discrimination model was used to calculate the priorities of the emergency rescue areas of the Wenchuan,Sichuan,Ms 8.0 earthquake.It is found that the simulated rescue areas determined through the model are in good accordance with the real key rescue areas.This proves that the model is reliable and practicable.The model can serve theoretically and technically for the deployment of the earthquake emergency rescue force.