陕西省榆林地区塌陷地震灾害预测研究

Research on prediction of collapse earthquake disaster in Yulin Region,Shaanxi Province

通过对近10 a来榆林地区塌陷地震的时间序列与空间分布规律进行分析,认为该类地震的发生与社会发展规律具有高度的相关性,因此,将塌陷地震作为人为地震来研究,从社会层面剖析其发生原因,选取影响资源型城市发展的社会、经济、资源、环境各方面的34个指标与评价目标地震发生年频次进行相关性分析,然后建立多元线性回归模型,并进行了检验与预测,得出以下结论:(1)榆林地区的塌陷地震均为采空区塌陷地震,属于人为发生地震,与构造地震无关,此类地震的发生特点可以概括为八个字"先塌后震,震而复塌"。(2)榆林地区的采空区塌陷地震具有"频发性、连发性、季发性"的特征,主要分布于榆阳区煤矿区和神府煤矿区,其中神府煤矿区发生尤为频繁。(3)预测模型得出最佳拟合的10个自变量,模型检验效果显著。

Through the analysis of the time sequence and space distribution rules of the collapse earthquakes in Yulin in the recent ten years,it is found that the earthquakes are highly correlated with social development situation.Therefore,the collapse earthquake should be treated as an artificial earthquake and studied from the aspect of social viewpoint.Thirty four indices including the development of society,economy,resources and environment in resource-based cities were selected for the analysis of correlation with the evaluation target,the annual frequency of earthquake.Then a multiple linear regression model was established as well as forecasted and inspected.Results show that,(1) the earthquakes in Yulin are all goaf collapse earthquakes,which are of artificial type and have nothing to do with tectonic earthquakes.Their occurrence characteristics can be summarized as 'shocks after collapse,then trigger another collapse';(2) The goaf collapse earthquakes in Yulin possess the characteristic of frequency,continuation,and seasonal variations.They mainly distributed in Yuyang coal mine area and Shenfu coal mine areas,and are particularly frequent in Shenfu coal mine areas;(3) the forecasting models work out the best fit of the ten independent variables and the effect of the model test is obvious.