北京“7·21”暴雨灾害前后公众的风险认知变化

Changes in risk public perception before and after the“7.21”rainstorm disaster in Beijing

提高公众的水灾风险认知,有助于减少城市洪涝灾害的损失及风险。利用气象数据分析了2012年汛期北京的降水特点,以"7·21"暴雨灾害为分界点,基于问卷调查数据,分析了公众风险认知在灾前和灾后的变化。结果显示,北京市2012年汛期降水次数和强度均高于常年水平,"7·21"大暴雨及其造成的严重损失,短期内迅速提高了公众的风险认知水平,表现为公众对暴雨风险的关注度以及采取防灾备灾措施的人数比例升高,但这是一种暂时的应激调整现象,灾后,警惕性显著提高的主要为受灾群众,而多数的公众作为"旁观者"尚未建立长久的风险防范意识,加强公众的灾害风险意识是长期而艰巨的工作。

It will help reducing losses and risks to increase the public's awareness of risks of rainstorm disasters. In this paper,the precipitation features in Beijing in the 2012 rainy season were analyzed by using metrological data and the public risk perception's change before and after the disaster were also analyzed by taking'7. 21'rainstorm as the cut-off point and based on the questionnaire survey data. The results show that,the precipitation frequency and intensity in the 2012 rainy season in Beijing are higher than those of common years,and that the '7. 21'rainstorm causeing serious losses quickly improves the level of public risk perception in a short term,including raising their attention to disaster risk and increasing the proportion of public to adopt disaster preparedness measures. However,this is a temporary phenomenon of stress adjustment. After disaster,only the natural calamity victims obviously increase the disaster prevention vigilance,the majority of the public as the'bystander'have not yet set up a long time risk prevention consciousness. Therefore,strengthening the public's disaster risk perception is a long-term and arduous work.