未来10年新疆地震灾害损失特征及减灾效果评价

Characteristics and reduction effect evaluation of earthquake disaster losses in Xinjiang in the future 10 years

基于新疆未来10年尺度(2013-2022年)21个强震危险区和发震构造的判定结果以及各乡镇所遭受的最大影响烈度,通过对近年来经济社会相关统计资料的分析预测,采用易损性清单方法对各危险区未来10年地震灾害损失进行了动态预测和减灾效果评估。结果表明,当各危险区未来10年遭遇预期地震时,地震造成的总经济损失及震亡人员数量随时间均呈总体下降的特点,全区地震灾害直接经济损失和人员伤亡的重点在天山地区。地震总直接经济损失期望值在628.45亿~728.58亿元之间(2013年不变价计),地震人员震亡数量期望值在4031~10995人之间。各危险区未来10年地震经济损失减灾率在58.21%~105.69%之间,人员震亡减少率在51.4%~85.25%。由此说明,正在新疆开展的'安居富民'工程的减灾效果是十分显著的,同时对未来新疆的防震减灾工作部署提供了重要依据。

Based on the predicted results of 21 strong earthquake hazard zones and possible seismogenic faults in the future 10 years in Xinjiang,the possible dynamic earthquake disaster direct economic losses and casualties were estimated using the vulnerability bill method,which was applied to township computation element. The results show that,if all strong earthquake zones were striken by the expected earthquakes in the future 10 years,both the overall direct economic losses and casualties would decrease with time elapse,and the dominant losses would distribute in Tianshan area. Furthermore,the expected overall economic loss would be between 62. 845 and 72. 858 billion yuan( in fixed price of year 2013) and the expected casualties would be between 4013 and 10995. The reduction rates of earthquake disaster losses for the year 2013 to 2022 would range from 58. 21% to 105. 69% in economic loss and from 51. 4% to 85. 2% in casualties. These data indicates a notable disaster reduction effect in 10 years resulting from the so called project ' safe residing and richening for citizens'. This study provides an important basis for the local governments to deploy earthquake prevention and reduction works.