云南电网山火灾害风险评估

Assessment of power grid risk caused by wildfire disaster in Yunnan Province

云南电网因山火灾害而跳闸的事故频频发生,造成了严重的经济损失。科学合理地评价云南电网的山火灾害风险对于减少云南电网灾变损失具有重要意义。从山火灾害危险性和电网脆弱性两个角度进行了分析,建立了风险评估模型。山火灾害危险性以森林火险等级和森林面积作为评价指标,电网脆弱性以电网设备密度、电网设备损坏率、GDP密度、人口密度等4个指标建立评价指标体系。评价结果表明,云南电网山火灾害风险的时空分布特点为:时间上,风险值3月>4月>2月>1月>5月>12月;区域上,丽江、红河、楚雄等地区风险值较高,德宏、怒江、迪庆等地区风险值较低。

Tripping accidents caused by wildfires disasters in Yunnan Power Grid occur frequently,which cause serious economic losses. Scientific and reasonable assessment of wildfire disasters has important significance for reducing the disaster loss of the power grid. This paper analyzed the hazard of wildfires and the vulnerability of the power grid and established the risk assessment model. Forest area and the forest fire danger rating were taken as the evaluation indices of the hazard of wildfires. The network equipment density,network equipment damage rate,GDP density and population density were used to establish the evaluation system of grid vulnerability. Evaluation results show that,temporally,the risk values from large to small in sequence are March,April,February,January,May,and December. Spatially,the risk values of Lijiang,Honghe,Chuxiong and so on are higher,and those of Dehong,Nujiang,Diqing and so on are lower.