黄淮海地区夏玉米花期阴雨灾害风险区划

Risk zoning of continuous overcast rain disaster of summer maize during florescence in Huang-Huai-Hai region

黄淮海地区为我国夏玉米主产区。夏玉米花期若遇连阴雨灾害将导致玉米减产,造成严重的经济损失。选取黄淮海地区(包括北京、天津、河北、河南、安徽、山东)1971-2011年7-8月的日降水量、日照时数等气象资料,及土地利用类型等数据,采用层次分析法和加权综合评价法,结合GIS空间技术,对黄淮海地区夏玉米花期阴雨灾害进行了风险区划。结果表明:黄淮海地区夏玉米花期阴雨高危险性地区主要分布在黄淮海地区东南部,占总面积的9.7%;高暴露性区域集中分布在山东省、河北省中南部及河南省东部,占总面积的32.5%;高易损性地区主要分布在黄淮海地区南部,占总面积的5.1%;整体综合风险指数较高,中、高风险区主要分布在黄淮海地区北部、东部及南部,占总面积的57.3%。对区划结果进行了验证,结果表明:实际夏玉米花期阴雨灾害发生情况与分析结果吻合良好。

Huang-Huai-Hai region is Chinese main producing areas of summer maize. Continuous overcast rain in florescence will lead to reduction in summer maize production and serious economic losses. This article conducts a risk zoning of continuous overcast rain disaster of summer maize in florescence selecting meteorological data such as daily precipitation,sunshine hour and other meteorological data in July and August during 1971 to 2011 in Huang-Huai-Hai region( including Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,Henan,Anhui,Shandong) and other data such as land use types,using analytic hierarchy process( AHP) and weighted comprehensive evaluation method,and combining with the GIS space technology. Results show that,the high hazard areas of continuous overcast rain disaster of summer maize during florescence are mainly distributed in the southeast of Huang-Huai-Hai region,which occupies 9. 7% of the total area; high exposure area is relatively concentrated in Shandong Province,middlesouth of Hebei Province and east of Henan Province,which account for 32. 5% of the total area. High vulnerability area is mainly located in the south of the Huang-Huai-Hai region,which account for 5. 1% of the total area. The overall comprehensive risk index is high. The medium and high risk areas are mainly distributed in the north,eastand south,accounting for 57. 3% of the total area. The verification zoning results show that,the actual situation of continuous overcast rain disaster of summer maize during florescence coincides well with the results of this paper.