旱灾对水稻市场影响的评估

Evaluation of impact of drought on China's rice market

长江中下游地区是我国水稻主产区,该区域的旱灾将威胁到我国粮食安全。采用小波神经网络和逻辑增长模型建立了一个评估旱灾影响的干预分析模型,评估了2011年发生在该地区50年一遇的旱灾对我国主产区水稻市场的干预模式和影响强度。研究表明旱灾对我国主产区水稻市场的干预近似服从逻辑分布。旱灾发生时,市场价格并不会立刻大幅上涨,在旱灾持续约4个月后,市场价格才被快速拉升,之后逐渐过渡到平缓波动,最后市场价格刚性使得水稻价格维持在一个新的高位上波动。

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is the major producing area of rice in China. The drought in this region may pose threat to food security in China. By use of wavelet neural network and logistic increase model,a drought influence assessing intervention analysis model was established and the intervention mode Land influence intensity of a 50 years once met drought in 2011 to rise market of major rice production area in China were assessed. The results show that the intervention of drought in rice market of major production area obeys logistic distribution. During happening period of drought,the market price does not rise at once,but after four months of drought,the market price will rise rapidly,and then it will fluctuate gently. Finally the market price of the rice will fluctuate on a new high level.