最终需求拉动下的中国碳排放研究

China's Carbon Emissions Embodied in Final Demands Items

论文从中国GDP的构成入手,运用投入产出法,研究CO2排放量增长的经济拉动因素,分析不同的经济因素对中国CO2排放量增长的拉动贡献。得出以下几个结论:①居民消费和投资是拉动中国CO2排放量持续增长的两大助推器,且鉴于中国未来经济的发展态势,预计未来由居民消费和投资拉动的CO2排放量比重会呈缓慢上升趋势;②消费中各产品部门的CO2排放量较为分散,但以石油天然气开采业为代表的其他行业及机械、电气、电子设备制造业、电力、蒸汽、热水生产和供应业等比例相对较重;③政府消费拉动的CO2排放量份额较小,且其贡献比例呈现逐渐下降的趋势;④进出口对CO2排放量有相反的效应,且在未来,中国可能出现进出口拉动的净CO2排放量逐渐增加的态势。

In this paper, from the composition of China's GDP, we use input-output method to analyze the growth of CO2emissions and the economic pull factors of the growth of China's CO2 emissions. Through the analysis, we get some conclusions: 1) Consumer and investment constitute the two major drivers of China's CO2 emissions. Their contribution has been more than 84.5% of the proportion of China's total CO2 emissions. And in view of China's future economic development trend, it is expected that the consumer and investmentled proportion of CO2emissions will be increased gradually. 2) CO2emissions from different sectors of household consumption are more dispersed, but the proportion of oil, gas, mining industry and textile and garments, leather down and its products industry is relatively higher.3) CO2emissions of government purchases account for relatively small share. And its proportion declined from 14.61% to 5.39% during 1992-2007 which showed an apparently gradual downward trend. 4) Import and export have the opposite effect on CO2emissions. In the foreseeable future, the upward trend of China's total CO2emissions is irreversible. And in the future, the net CO2emissions of China from import and export may face an increasing trend.