基于过程的农户土地利用行为模型的设计与模拟研究

A Process-Based Decision-Making Model and Its Application for Farm Households' Learning Behavior Responding to Environmental Changes

通过基于过程的方式来研究农户决策行为已经成为学者们关注的焦点问题之一。论文依据Belief、Desire、Intention(BDI)决策框架,设计基于过程的农户土地利用行为决策模型。模型以农户实际决策而非效益最大化作为行为模拟的假设,对陕西省米脂县高渠乡的典型村落马蹄洼和姜兴庄土地利用变化进行模拟。模拟可以再现农户决策的动态性和反馈性,展示农户学习行为的过程及其影响,揭示农户决策变化的内在机理。利用该模型,对3种情景下农户土地利用行为进行模拟,对比分析3种情景的优劣,指出政府未来应当在降低市场风险、规范合作社经营、提高市场预测方面多做工作。文章最后对该种方法的优点和不足进行总结,并指出今后需要加强的方向。

More work has been called for with regard to farmers' behavior and its understanding in relation to the complexity of agricultural systems. However, significant strands of research in the field do not rely on an explicit and well-motivated behavioral theory. It is necessary that the process-based method should be used to study farm household's behavior on land use. In this paper, according to the decision- making framework of Belief, Desire, Intention(BDI) which has been used to reveal the decision- making of different agents for land use change under the hypothesis of the maximum benefit, the farm households' land-use decisionmaking model was designed. In order to explore the formation process and change of farm households' decision, we try to use the actual decision-making of farm households rather than decision-making of maximum benefit. Then, the decision-making of farm household was based on the theory of bounded rationality, not the theory of the maximum benefit. The BDI of farm householders were formulated respectively, and the interaction among the same and different farm groups was analyzed. Based on a case study in a study area in Mizhi County of Shaanxi Province of China, we discuss the potential and limitations of farm household's land-use decision-making model under three hypothetical local policy scenarios. Compared to the difference between the actual land use change and the result of the simulation, we analyze the validity of the model. From our design and implementation of the farm household's land- use model a number of conclusions can be drawn: 1) The BDI framework can well reveal the general process of individual decision-making, and can explore the mechanism of formation and change of individual land-use decision-making, especially to analyze the learning behavior of individuals while the environment changes. 2) In order to prompt shallot planting, we propose that the local government should help the farm household shallot cooperatives to grasp the market risk, standardize the cooperation and supervise the contract among farm household shallot cooperatives and farm households.