基于绿色投入产出模型的资源补偿费及经济影响模拟

Simulation of Resource Compensation Fees and Its Economic Impact Based on China's Green Input-Output Table

在编制的绿色投入产出表基础上,对我国煤炭和石油资源的使用补偿费和理论价格进行计算,并分三种情景对征收资源使用补偿费产生的经济影响进行模拟。模拟结果显示,煤炭和石油资源的使用补偿费分别为623元/t和7 688元/t,其理论价格分别是实际价格的5.3和3.9倍,我国煤炭和石油资源的价格偏低。如果征收理论资源使用费用将对石油和天然气开采业、煤炭开采和洗选业、电力、热力的生产和供应业、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业、化学原料及化学制品制造业、石油加工及炼焦业等部门的价格影响较大,如果按照新修订的资源税进行征收,将对石油和天然气开采业的影响较大。

Based on the China's green input-output table, coal and oil's resource compensation fees and theoretical price were calculated. Further, the economic impacts about resource compensation fees were simulated by three scenarios. Some results were shown as follows. 1) Coal and oil resource compensation fees were 623 yuan/t and 7688 yuan/t, which were almost equal to China's real price of coal and oil. 2) The theoretical prices of coal and oil were 5.3 times and3.9 times that of the real price. 3) If simulated resource compensation was imposed, the prices of these industries would be impacted heavily, such as extraction of petroleum and natural gas,mining and washing of coal, production and supply of electric power and heat power, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products,processing of petroleum and coking. 4) Due to data constraints, the establishment green inputoutput tables was simplified in two sides. Firstly, the simulation result of natural gas was 0, because simulations took energy efficiency improvement as assumptions and natural gas per unit GDP energy consumption didn't increase. At the same time, due to lack of pollution control fees and pollutants of tertiary industries, tertiary industries were merged into one industry,which was different with traditional input-output table.