中国人口分布的水资源限制性与限制度研究

Research on the Water Resources Restriction on Population Distribution in China

论文以人口分布的水资源限制性与限制度评价为核心,采用水资源承载指数和水资源限制度等模型,从全国、分省、分县等三个不同尺度,系统评价了2000年和2010年中国人口分布的水资源限制性与限制度,定量揭示了中国人口与水资源关系的地域格局与变化规律。结果表明:11949—2010年中国水资源承载力以水量盈余为主要特征,人水关系趋于紧张;从2000到2010年,中国人口分布的水资源限制度由30.66提升到35.25,中国人口分布的水资源限制度有所增强;22000年和2010年,中国分省水资源承载力以水量盈余为主要特征,中国大部分省份人口分布的水资源限制度处于较低水平,但近10 a水资源限制性大多有所增强;32000年和2010年,中国约有3/4左右的分县单元基本不受水资源限制,中国基于分县人口分布的水资源限制度整体较低,2010年与2000年相比,水资源限制性与限制度有所增强;4就空间分布来看,中国分省和分县水资源限制性与限制度整体呈现出北部强于南部、泛黄河流域强于长江流域的基本地理格局。

As an important theme of regional sustainable development, the relationship between population distribution and resources, environment, and socio- economic development has attracted much attention for a long time. The resources restriction on population distribution becomes more significant for population growth in China, especially the water resources.The population was 0.54 billion in 1949, and per capita water resource was about 5000 m3 in China at that time.Then, with the growing of population from 0.5 billion to 0.7 billion, till 1 billion, China's per capita water resource had dropped to 4000 m3 and 2800 m3 accordingly. When population reached 1.3 billion in 2005, per capita water resource dropped to about 2151 m3, till2099 m3 in 2010, which means the restriction of water resource to socio-economic development had kept strengthening. A basic objective of this study is to investigate the water resources restriction and intensity on population distribution at different levels in China. This paper established a series of models for evaluating water resources restriction to population distribution.The spatio-temporal features of water resources restriction to population distribution in China were assessed comprehensively from 2000 to 2010 at three levels: national, provincial and county. The intensity, spatial pattern and changing law of water resources restriction to population pattern were also revealed quantitatively. The results showed that: 1) at the national level,the carrying capacity of water resources was dominated by water surplus in China during 1949-2010, and the relationship between population and water resources has been strained. The restriction of water resources on population distribution in China increased during 2000-2010, up to 35.25 from 30.66, meaning that the water resources restriction to population distribution enhanced. 2) At the provincial level, the carrying capacity of water resources was also led by water surplus in China from 2000 to 2010 and the water resources restriction to population distribution was at low level in most provinces. To be specified, the restriction intensity of water resources for overall population distribution showed an upward trend at the provincial level during 2000-2010. 3) At the county level, the main feature of the carrying capacity of water resources in China was water surplus. From the aspect of the number of the counties, about 3/4 of the counties in China were not influenced by water resources restriction in 2000 and 2010. The restriction intensity of water resources restriction on population distribution was overall low at the county level and showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2010. 4) The basic spatial pattern of water resources restriction to population distribution showed that the northern China was higher than the southern and the Yellow River Basin was higher than the Yangtze River Basin.