中国耕地利用投入要素集约度的时空差异及其影响因素分析

Spatiotemporal Difference and Driving Forces of Input Factors Intensity for Arable Land-use in China

在测度单位面积耕地化肥、农业固定资产、劳动力、农药、农膜和农用柴油投入量的基础上,基于Theil指数和计量经济模型,系统分析了中国1999年以来耕地利用投入要素集约度的时空差异及其影响因素。结果表明:1国家尺度上的劳动力集约度逐年下降,而化肥、农用柴油、农药、农膜和农业固定资产的集约度均呈上升趋势,其中农业固定资产增幅最大;2区域尺度上耕地利用投入要素集约度的时序变化特征与国家尺度上的变化特征一致;除劳动力集约度中部地区最高外,其他投入要素的集约度均以东部地区最高,中部地区次之,东北地区和西部地区最低;3省域尺度上的劳动力集约度分化为两个不同的变化方向,化肥、农药和农用柴油集约度在上海、天津、江苏和山东等经济发达的省(市)有所下降;4我国耕地利用投入要素集约度的区域差异比较明显,1999年以来总体差距呈缩小态势,区域之间的差异对总体差异的贡献较大;5农村居民家庭人均经营纯收入和人口非农化比重对化肥、农业固定资产、农药和农膜投入产生显著正向作用,产业非农化比重的上升导致化肥投入增加,农业政策促进了化肥和农业固定资产投入水平的提高。最后,论文认为亟需关注快速增加的农业固定资产投资的结构及其社会、经济和生态效益,以及化肥、农药和农膜大量施用对生态环境的影响;在当前耕地面积约束条件下,应着重提高农村居民家庭人均经营纯收入,同时进一步加大对欠发达地区及粮食主产区农业发展的扶持力度,充分发挥国家惠农政策的诱致作用,全面提高我国耕地集约利用水平。

Based on the Theil index and an econometric model,this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal difference and driving forces of six input factors intensity of arable land-use in China.The results showed that:1) At the national scale,the labor intensity of arable land-use has decreased,while the remaining five input factors intensity showed a rising trend in China,and among them,agricultural fixed assets being of the highest growth rate.2) At the regional scale,the temporal pattern of six input factors intensity for arable land-use was in common with which at the national scale.In addition to the labor intensity which the central region was of the highest value,intensity of other five input factors were of the highest values in the eastern region,the central region took the second place and the northeast and west regions were of the lowest values.3) At provincial scale,there was two changing directions in labor intensity,while the intensity of fertilizer,pesticide and agricultural diesel oil decreased in Shanghai,Tianjin,Jiangsu and Shandong where are economically developed.4) The regional differences of six input factors intensity of arable land-use in China was evident and showed a narrowing trend.The differences of six input factors intensity of arable land-use between four major regions contributed more than differences within the region.5) Per capita annual net incomes of household operations and proportion of nonagricultural population had a significant positive correlation with inputs of fertilizer,agricultural investment in fixed assets,pesticide and agricultural plastic film.The proportion of nonagricultural industry had a significant positive correlation with fertilizer input.Agricultural policies promoted the inputs of fertilizer and agricultural investment in fixed assets.Finally,we suggest that there is an urgent need to focus on the structure of agricultural investment in fixed assets and its social,economic and ecological effects,as well as ecological impact of heavy application of fertilizer,pesticide and agricultural plastic film.In order to comprehensively promote the arable land-use intensity under the conditions of area constraints,the government should focus on improving per capita annual net incomes of household operations,meanwhile strengthening the agricultural support policies for less developed regions and major grain producing regions.