耕地种植速生林的影响因素及其政策启示——基于山东省两市的农户调查

Driving Factors of Fast-Growing Forest Planting and Its Policy Implications—Based on the Household Survey in Two Cities of Shandong Province

文章建立农户理论模型与回归模型,并基于山东省两个县级市——平度市与高密市282份农户问卷,对两市农户耕地中种植速生林的特征及其影响因素进行了分析,结果表明:1调查区80%以上的速生林土地来源于耕地,其占用耕地面积占总耕地面积的比例达到3.9个百分点;2地块面积越大,农户将此地块转种速生林的几率越低;3户主年龄、户主受教育程度、农业收入、耕地质量与耕地种植速生林的关系不显著,说明速生林种植技术要求较低,普通耕地质量就可以满足速生林的种植需求,这也是调查区超过80%的速生林土地来源于耕地的主要原因之一;4农户种植速生林会明显提高劳动生产率,高非农工资收入的家庭,更倾向于种植速生林,而地块破碎、耕作距离较远会增加传统农业的总劳动投入量与强度,导致农户种植速生林;5邻地是否种植速生林对农户的速生林种植决策影响明显,说明速生林对耕地的胁迫效应严重。从保护基本农田的角度,需要避免新的速生林种植现象出现,重点针对常年举家外出的农户与非农收入较高的农户;政府亦应在推动土地向种粮农户流转方面作深入工作。

In recent years, large areas of cultivated land are increasingly occupied by fast-growing trees in China, especially by the pulpwood for the paper mill industry. The planting of fastgrowing trees results in the decline of the area and quality of the cultivated land. This paper aims to identify the driving factors of planting fast-growing trees through household surveys. A theoretical and statistical model is used to study the probability of fast- growing tree planting,based on a total of 282 valid questionnaires and 717 plots of cropland in two county-level cities, Pingdu and Gaomi of Shandong Province. The main results of the study are as follows: 1)More than 80 percent of fast- growing tree land area comes from the cultivated land, and now the cultivated land area occupied by fast-growing trees accounts for 3.9 per cent of the total. 2)Plot area has a negative impact on the planting of fast-growing trees, which means farmers do not like to plant trees in larger plots. 3) Age and educational level of the head of household, agricultural income, and land quality have no obvious impacts on the planting of fast- growing trees. 4) Fast- growing trees produce higher labor productivity. The households with a higher wage rate are more inclined to plant trees in cultivated lands. Small plots and long- distance commuting will obviously increase total labor input and intensity, which would likely result in the planting of fast-growing trees. 5) In the lands next to the fast-growing forests, farmers are more inclined to plant trees, which means that fast- growing trees have serious negative influences on their own lands as well as adjacent lands. In order to protect the basic croplands, more planting of fast-growing trees in cultivated lands should be avoided. More attention should be paid to the households with a higher wage rate and those out of home throughout the year. Finally, the government should do more work to enhance the land transfer.