土地利用规划对建设用地扩张的管控效果分析——基于一致性与有效性的复合视角

The Controlling Effects of Land-use Planning on Construction Land Expansion Based on the Perspective Compositing Consistency and Effectiveness

为了研究土地利用规划对建设用地扩张的管控效果,论文从规划目标一致性与实施有效性两个视角出发构建概念模型,选择GIS空间分析方法与Logistic计量模型作为技术支撑,对江苏通州进行案例研究。结果表明:1基于一致性视角,从空间规模与空间结构控制效果来看,通州土地利用总体规划在2002—2010年间对建设用地扩张的管控效果较差,对具体地类而言,新增城镇工矿用地的管控效果要优于农村居民点用地;2基于有效性视角,规划对建设用地扩张具有显著影响,规划确定的建设预留区对建设用地扩张起到了明显的空间引导作用,但与预期相反,规划基本农田保护区却未发挥出应有的约束作用;3综合来看,规划实施的一致性较差,且规划管控仅在一定程度上有效,处于不完全理想的状态;4对比可知,发展到一定阶段之后,空间区位变量对建设用地扩张的驱动作用会相对更强,意味着集聚发展可能成为必然,有必要强化规划实施的空间管控效果。该模型能够较好地评价土地利用规划对建设用地扩张的管控效果,可为完善规划实施评价的理论与技术方法提供参考。

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether land-use planning has controlled construction land expansion based on the perspective compositing consistency and effectiveness. The conceptual model was built up and used in a case study of Tongzhou in Jiangsu. The GIS spatial analysis method and a Logistic model were used to evaluate the consistency of construction land expansion before and after the land-use planning, and the effectiveness of landuse planning, respectively. The results showed that: 1) Based on the perspective of consistency,the controlling effects of space scale and space structure show that, the construction land expansion controlling effects of Tongzhou are poorer in the last round of general land-use planning.In contrast, the controlling effects of newly-increased urban industrial and mining land are better than land use at the rural residential land. 2) Based on the perspective of effectiveness, landuse planning has an significant impact on construction land expansion; the reserved area of construction of land- use planning has played an obvious space guiding function in construction land expansion. But contrary to expectations, planning of basic farmland protection areas has not played a proper role in constraint. 3) Taken together, the consistency of land-use planning implementation was poor and the land- use planning in an incomplete ideal state has an effect just to a certain degree. 4) It is known by contrast, the driving action of space location variables for construction land expansion will be relatively stronger after the development to a certain stage. It means that cluster development may become inevitable and it is necessary to strengthen space controlling effects of land-use planning implementation. This model can evaluate the controlling effects of land-use planning on construction land expansion better; it can provide a reference for improving the planning implementation evaluation method of theory and technology.