气候波动和人类活动对滦河流域径流变化的定量影响分析

Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Runoff Change in the Luanhe River Catchment

气候波动和人类活动对流域水文循环过程产生了重大的影响,定量评估它们的影响是水科学研究中的热点问题。论文以滦河流域为研究对象,利用基于SWAT水文模型的径流变化定量分离方法评估了气候波动、人类活动和土地利用变化三者分别对滦河流域径流变化的影响。结果表明:在1960—2010年期间,滦河流域的径流深呈现显著的下降趋势。在变异Ⅰ期(1980—1994年)和Ⅱ期(1995—2010年)内,气候波动和人类活动对径流减少的影响量都在增加,且人类活动一直是径流减少的主要影响因素。土地利用对径流变化的影响,在变异Ⅰ期为负的影响,在变异Ⅱ期为正的影响。

The hydrological processes are largely influenced by climate variability and human activities, and the quantitative assessment of their impacts on runoff change is a hot issue in hydrological scientific research. With the quantitative assessment method of runoff change based on SWAT model, this study uses long hydro- climatic data of the Luanhe River Catchment to quantitatively assess the runoff's response to climate variability and human activities. By using Mann- Kendall method, the whole runoff time series were divided into three periods: baseline period, variability period I and II. Then the contribution rates of climate variability and human activities on runoff change in variability period I and II were analyzed with quantitative assessment method. The results show that there was a statistically significant decreasing trend of annual runoff during 1960- 2010. Compared with the average annual runoff in baseline period,the average annual runoff in variability period I and II decreased 49.71% and 70.03%, respectively. So the impact of climate variability and human activities on the runoff became much stronger. And the human activities were the main factors for the runoff decrease. In variability period I, the contribution rates of human activities and climate change on runoff's decrease were-26.30% and-73.70%, respectively. While in variability period II the contribute rates of human activities and climate change on runoff decrease were-26.15% and-73.85%, respectively. As for the impact of land use change on the runoff, it reduced the runoff with the contribution rate of-19.65% in variability period I, while it increased the runoff with the contribution rate of 3.83% in variability period II.