中国污染密集型产业地理分布研究

An Empirical Study on the Geographical Distribution of Pollution-Intensive Industries in China

随着资源环境约束加强,调整产业结构、优化产业空间布局已成为我国经济发展的战略选择。产业空间格局重置过程中,污染密集型产业的转移成为一个迫切需要研究的问题。论文利用2003—2008年工业企业普查数据,采用Tobit模型和Heckman两阶段模型,探讨污染密集型产业地理分布的特征。论文发现,我国污染密集型产业正在进行空间结构调整,长江三角洲、珠江三角洲、京津冀地区污染密集产业不断转出,山东及中部地区开始成为污染密集型产业新的集聚地;造纸等较为轻型产业主要向中部内陆等地区转移,而化学原料及化学制品业等技术密集型产业则更主要在沿海地带重新分布。另外,要素禀赋、环境规制以及全球化对污染密集型产业分布影响显著。其中,技术以及劳动力成本是污染企业区位选择的重要影响因素;受全球化的影响,国际市场潜力对污染企业区位影响更为重要;环境规制与污染企业的成立具有倒U型关系;最后,企业的异质性对于污染企业地理分布也具有显著的影响。文章启示,在产业转移过程中,需要适当的政策引导以最小化对生态环境的破坏。

With the strengthening pressure of resource and environment, it has become a strategic choice to restructure industries and optimize the spatial distribution in the period of China's economic transition. However the pollution accompanying with the industrial spatial restructuring has become an urgent issue. Based on the data from China Industrial Statistical Yearbooks from 2003 to 2008, using 2- digital and 3- digital pollution- intensive industrial output and the start- up, this study investigate the geographical distribution of pollution- intensive industries with Tobit model and Heckman Model. This paper finds that the pollution-intensive industries are under spatial restructuring. They have started to move out from three major economic zones. Shandong and other central provinces have become the new gathering places for the transferred industries. Light pollution industries, i.e. paper, have transferred to the inland provinces. However, technology intensive industries, i.e. chemical products, mainly moved to other coastal provinces. In addition, Statistical results show that factor endowments, environmental regulation and globalization are all the significant locational determinants of Chinese pollutionintensive industries. Among factor endowments, technology and labor costs are the key factors for pollution- intensive firms to choose locations. International market is becoming more and more important for the location choice compared with the nature resource. It has an inverted Ushaped relationship between the environmental regulation and the establishment of new firms.Finally, the locational determinants also significantly depend on the natures of industries and firms. The empirical results would provide scientific supports for regional industrial and environmental policies.