自然资源与经济增长——基于金融发展门槛效应

Natural Resources and Economic Growth:Based on the Threshold Effect of Financial Development

"资源诅咒"是经济学中的一个经典假说,但金融发展水平对"资源诅咒"产生的影响却容易被忽视。论文通过使用1996—2012年中国31个省市区域的面板数据,利用Hansen门槛模型发现:"资源诅咒"确实存在于中国省际;金融发展水平对经济增长存在门槛临界,即金融业的发展情况在门槛值1.635 2的前后,自然资源对经济增长的影响程度显著不同;居民消费和政府支出可以显著影响金融业的发展;物质资本投入水平仍然是影响中国经济增长的重要因素。因此拉动地方消费、提高政府支出和物质资本投入,进而提高地区金融业发展水平,可以有效缓解"资源诅咒"现象,促进经济增长。

'Resource curse'is a classic hypothesis in economics, but the impact of financial development on 'resource curse' is always ignored. This paper reveals that financial development threshold exists in the'resource curse'through theoretical level, using Hansen threshold model based on the panel data of Chinas 31 provinces over the period of 1996-2012.There is evidence that inter provincial'resource curse'does exist in China; a threshold of financial development exists in economic growth, namely the development of the financial sector before and after the threshold 1.6352 has significant different impact on economic growth; household consumption and government expenditure have impact on the financial industry significantly; physical capital investment is still the important factor that affects Chinas economic growth. Therefore, stimulating local consumption, increasing government expenditure and investing in physical capital can improve the development level of regional financial industry, when the financial development is over the threshold, natural resource can effectively promote economic growth through the optimal configuration of the financial sector, so that can effectively alleviate the'resource curse'phenomenon, and promote economic growth.