基于CGE模型的海洋生态补偿与宏观经济效应研究——以山东省为例

Study on Marine Ecological Compensation and Macroeconomic Effect Based on CGE Model:A Case Study of Shandong Province

构建包含海洋自然资源要素和海洋主体信息的CGE模型,应用SAM表提供的基础数据,以山东省为例研究了不同情景下海洋生态补偿以及国内生产总值、居民收入、企业收入、政府收入和居民消费福利水平等受到的影响。研究结果表明:1)提高企业对海洋的转移支付率引致海洋生态补偿量增加幅度最高,提高居民对海洋的转移支付率引致海洋生态补偿量增加的幅度次之,提高增值税率引致海洋生态补偿量增加的幅度居第三位,提高政府对海洋的转移支付率引致海洋生态补偿量增加的幅度最小;2)提高增值税率虽然能够引起海洋生态补偿量的显著增加,但是将会引起国内生产总值、企业收入以及居民福利水平的显著下降而表现出明显的负面经济效应;3)分别提高居民、企业和政府对海洋的转移支付率所引起的居民、政府和企业收入以及居民福利水平下降的幅度相对比较小;4)海洋自然资源供给、劳动供给和经济资本供给的海洋生态补偿量乘数均为正值,即生产过程中三类初始生产要素的增加都会引致海洋生态补偿量的增加。

Based on CGE model which contains marine natural resources and marine information, Shandong Province is taken as an example to study the impact of marine ecological compensation, GDP, residents income, enterprise income, government income and residents welfare under different scenarios by using basic data from SAM. Firstly, the result shows that marine ecological compensation can be increased by increasing four exogenous variables,which are transfer payments rate from enterprise, transfer payments rate from residents, valueadded tax rate, and transfer payments rate from government. The increase of transfer payments rate from enterprise has the most effect on marine ecological compensation, followed by the increase of transfer payments rate from residents, then the increase of value-added tax rate, and the increase of transfer payments rate from government has the less effect. For example, if four exogenous variables increase by 10% respectively, marine ecological compensation can increase 1.824%, 1.417%, 1.083% and 0.097% respectively. Secondly, the result shows that although increasing value-added tax rate can significantly enhance marine ecological compensation, it will cause an obvious negative macroeconomic effect that it leads GDP, enterprise income and residents' welfare level to drop significantly. Thirdly, the result shows that the increase of transfer payments rate from residents, transfer payments rate from enterprise, and transfer payments rate from government each has less negative effect on macroeconomic than that of value-added tax rate. Finally, the result shows that the marine ecological compensation multipliers of marine natural resources supply, labor supply and economic capital supply are all positive(0.571×108, 0.002×108and 0.002×108yuan, respectively), which means increasing the three types of primary production factors will all cause the enhancement of marine ecological compensation during the production.