全球气候变化下中国农业生产潜力的空间演变

Temporal and Spatial Variation of the Potential Agricultural Productivity of China under Global Climate Change

农业生产潜力对区域农业发展和农业产业投资与布局等具有重要影响。然而,当前的研究较少探讨1980年代以来我国区域农业生产潜力空间演变特征,以及就未来气候变化对中国区域农业生产潜力所产生的可能影响也还较少关注。为此,论文对1980年代以来中国区域农业生产潜力的空间演变特征进行了分析,并就未来气候变化对中国区域农业生产潜力的可能影响做出了估计,研究发现:1961—2012年中国农业生产潜力的地理分异特征异常显著,其中东南较高,西北相对较低,同时呈现出较为明显的纬度地带性规律。1980年代以来我国农业生产潜力减少的区域主要是集中在胡焕庸线以东的地区,其中四川盆地和华北平原中部等地区的农业生产潜力减少最为明显,约在4%以上,而水分有效系数的下降是其农业生产潜力减少的主要因素,农业生产潜力增加的地区则主要位于长江中下游和华北平原南部等地。在当前的全球变化趋势下,模拟得到,2041—2060年我国农业生产潜力减少的区域可能主要位于长江以南以及青海中部地区,其中四川盆地和湖北中南部等地的农业生产潜力下降趋势最为明显,因而这也可能会给这些地区的平均粮食产量带来一定程度的下降。

Potential agricultural productivity has an important and far- reaching impact on regional agricultural development and agriculture industrialization investment and distribution.However, previous researches paid more attention to exploring the potential agricultural productivity in some regions of China, but the temporal and spatial variation of regional potential agricultural productivity in China have yet to receive the attention they deserve.Furthermore, more importantly, the study regarding the impact of climate change on the potential agricultural productivity and the spatial pattern of Chinese agricultural development are relatively small in China. Therefore, in allusion to the problems mentioned above, based on the GIS method, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of regional potential agricultural productivity of China since 1980 s, and discusses the impact of climate change on potential agricultural productivity and food production in China between 2041 and2060. Results mainly show that the regional potential agricultural productivity in southeastern China is higher than that of other parts of China between 1961 and 2012, and the lowest potential agricultural productivity is found in northwestern China. However, the averaged potential agricultural productivity is less than 7500 kg/hm2 in west regions of the HU- line in China. At the same time, spatial distribution of the averaged potential agricultural productivity in China between 1961 and 2012 clearly presents the characteristics of latitude zonality. In addition, by comparing two periods of 1961-1980 and 1981-2012, the decline of the potential agricultural productivity is mainly found in areas east of the HU- line, and the largest declines are found in Sichuan Basin and in the middle of North China Plain, falling by more than 4%.Notably, however, the biggest contributing factor leading to reduce of potential agricultural productivity in these regions is the availability coefficient of water. Moreover, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the south of North China Plain are characterized by increasing potential agricultural productivity. Finally, the simulated results suggest that the decline in the potential agricultural productivity of China between 2041 and 2060 can be mainly found in the area south of the Yangtze River and in the middle of Qinghai under the context of global climate change, where Sichuan Basin, southern and central Hubei would be the most declined regions in potential agricultural productivity, which means that future climate change may have a significant negative effect on food production in these regions.