经济全球化能够有效抑制“一带一路”沿线国家的生态足迹吗?——来自动态门槛面板模型的经验证据

Does economic globalization effectively inhibit the ecological footprint of countries along "The Belt and Road" ?:Empirical evidence from the dynamic threshold panel model

基于1993-2013年"一带一路"沿线55个国家的平行面板数据,运用Hansen动态面板门槛模型,以经济发展水平(人均GDP)为门槛变量,检验经济全球化与生态足迹之间的关系。研究结果表明:在不同的经济门槛范围内,经济全球化对生态足迹存在不同的影响。当经济发展水平小于等于3905美元时,经济全球化水平的提高能够显著降低生态足迹;当经济发展水平超过第一门槛值3905美元时,经济全球化水平对生态足迹的影响从显著抑制转变为促进作用,但是不显著;而当经济发展水平跨越第二门槛值8778美元时,经济全球化水平的提高能够显著刺激生态足迹的提高。当前"一带一路"沿线国家主要集中在第一门槛区间和第三门槛区间,经济全球化对生态足迹的影响出现两极分化态势,其中在第三门槛区间的国家在参与全球化的过程中应对资源的可持续利用引起充分重视,这关系到全球化的可持续发展和"一带一路"建设的顺利推进。

Using the panel threshold model proposed by Hansen, this paper empirically studies the nonlinear relationship between economic globalization and ecological footprint based on panel data of 55 countries along 'The Belt and Road' from 1993 to 2013, with economic development level(per capita GDP) as the threshold variable. The results show that there are distinctive relations between economic globalization and ecological footprint divided by thresholds rather than a single linear relationship. In different ranges of thresholds, the influences of economic globalization on ecological footprint are different. When the economic development level is less than per capita $ 3905, the improvement of economic globalization can effectively reduce the ecological footprint;when the economic development level exceeds the first threshold of per capita $ 3905, its improvement has positive effect on the ecological footprint, but the coefficient is not significant;when it exceeds the second threshold of per capita $ 8778, its improvement will increase the ecological footprint significantly. Currently,countries along 'The Belt and Road' are mainly concentrated in the first and third threshold interval, and the influence of economic globalization on the ecological footprint has a polarization trend. Attention should be given to the countries in the third threshold interval in the process of globalization, which is closely related to many aspects in sustainable development of globalization and 'The Belt and Road Initiative'.