基于突变级数法的民勤绿洲水资源管理政策绩效评价

Performance Evaluation of Water Management Policy for Minqin Oasis Using the Catastrophe Progression Method

水资源管理政策是干旱地区生态经济可持续发展的制度保障。从水资源安全的高度探讨水资源管理政策失效原因对于防治土地荒漠化具有重要的意义。文章采用参与式访谈和突变级数法,从政策认知水平、水资源利用效率水平、政策实施的社会经济效益水平、政策实施的生态环境效益水平等4个维度评价了民勤绿洲水资源管理政策绩效。研究结果表明:1963-1993年,民勤绿洲水资源管理政策绩效水平逐步提高,1993-2008年呈现下降趋势。其中,政策认知水平呈现逐年下降的趋势;水资源利用效率水平指标整体呈现增长趋势;政策实施的社会经济效益水平表现为先增大后下降、再增大的趋势;政策实施的生态环境效益水平则在1968-2008年间均表现为下降趋势。民勤绿洲偏重于工程技术层面的水资源管理政策在实现阶段性节水目标,促进经济社会发展的同时,使民勤陷入"开荒-节水-开荒"的恶性循环,推动了传统农业规模无序扩张,造成地下水资源过度开采,是干旱地区水土承载压力加大的"推动器"。

Arid zone ecological and economic sustainable development requires water management policy to ensure system guaranty. There are important implications for controlling land desertification and researching water resource management policy ineffectiveness,including understanding water resource security. Minqin Oasis in northwestern China has experienced rapid economic development,population growth and desertification and quantifying the pressure and protection of water resources is an urgent problem. Here,Minqin's water management policy performance was evaluated from a policy cognitive level,water use efficiency level,social and economic benefits level and ecological environment level. We used participation interviews and catastrophe progression methods and found that water management policy performance decreased from 1963-2003 and increased from 2003-2008. The policy cognitive level always decreased,the water use efficiency level always increased,the social and economic benefits level‘increaseddecreased- increased',and the ecological environment level always decreased. The water system here is trapped in a vicious cycle of‘scale reclamation- saving water- scale reclamation',accompanied by the promotion of economic development,social progress and water saving milestones,all driving sprawling development at an agricultural scale and water resource overexploitation. Water management policy that focuses on technical engineering is a booster of arid area desertification. Based on analyses of the current situation for Minqin Oasis,we suggest changing management notions of water resources,establishing suitable institutions for property rights and water resource rates,and establishing and improving ecological compensation mechanisms.