能源约束、技术进步与中国经济增长可持续性

Energy Constraints,Technological Progress and the Sustainability of China's Economic Growth

通过构建最终产品生产部门、研发部门以及能源生产部门的三部门内生增长模型,证明了稳态经济增长路径上的经济增长率等于技术进步增长率和能源增长率的加权和,只要经济发展中有足够的人力资本积累和技术进步,就可以克服能源的短缺,保持经济的可持续最优增长。采用我国2004-2011年30个省市的相关面板数据对上述结论进行了计量回归分析,估计的结果支持了这一结论。研究表明,我国研发资本的产出效率低下,应该更加重视研发资本产出效率的提高,而不是一味地强化研发资本投入量的增加。技术进步和能源消费对我国经济增长的影响系数都为正数,且技术进步的影响系数小于能源对经济增长率的影响系数。这说明目前我国经济增长仍然更多地要依靠能源消费的增长。最后,根据研究结论给出了本文的相关政策建议。

By constructing a three sector endogenous economic growth model including final product production department,R&D department and energy production sector,we demonstrate that an economic growth rate heading towards steady economic growth is equal to the weighted sum of the growth rate of technological progress and the growth rate in energy resources. As long as the economy has sufficient human capital accumulation and technological progress,we can overcome the shortage of energy resources and maintain optimal sustainable economic growth. The more investment in R&D departments,the higher will be the rate of economic growth and the growth rate of knowledge. Here,we looked at GDP for China's 30 provinces,R&D funding,R&Dhuman capital and energy consumption panel data from 2004 to 2011. Results of the regression model show that the efficiency of our China's R&D capital output is quite low and that we should pay more attention to R&D capital output efficiency,rather than blindly strengthening R&D funding. Both the coefficients for technological progress and energy efficiency on China's economic growth are positive,and the former coefficient is less than the latter coefficient. This shows that technological progress and energy inputs are both major factors influencing China's economic growth,but economic growth still relies on growth in energy inputs. Several policy recommendations are discussed in light of these findings.