大宗能源价格波动对国内化肥价格的影响

The Influence of Bulk Energy Price Fluctuation on Chemical Fertilizer Prices in China

化肥是我国粮食生产中最为主要的投入品,其价格上涨直接推高粮食生产成本,挤占利润空间,削弱农民种粮积极性。本文通过建立VAR模型,采用2005年1月-2012年12月共96个月的连续数据,定量分析大宗能源价格与化肥价格之间存在的稳定关系,并确定影响程度及价格传导滞后期。研究发现:大宗能源价格与氮肥、磷肥、钾肥价格高度相关,且存在长期稳定的正向相关性;原油价格对化肥价格(氮肥价格、磷肥价格)的影响具有2个月的滞后期,而煤炭价格对化肥价格(氮肥价格、磷肥价格、钾肥价格)的影响无滞后期。

Chemical fertilizer is a major input for food production. Increases in the price of fertilizers pushes up the cost of food production,squeezes profit,and weakens the enthusiasm of farmers to grown grain. Many studies have analyzed the causes of chemical fertilizer price fluctuation,however,the influence of bulk energy price fluctuation on chemical fertilizer prices remains unknown. Here,we use a VAR model and data from January 2005 to December 2012 to analyze the stable relationship between bulk energy prices and fertilizer prices to determine the degree of influence and the price transmission lag. We found that bulk energy prices are highly correlated with the price of nitrogen fertilizer,phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer,and there is a long-term stable positive correlation. There is a lag of two months for the impact of the crude oil price on chemical fertilizers(nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer),while there is no lag time for the impact of coal prices on that of chemical fertilizers(nitrogen fertilizer,phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer). Moreover,the prices of bulk energy have a strong positive correlation with those of fertilizers,which means that rising prices in bulk energy will push up the price of chemical fertilizers to different degrees. When the price of crude oil changes by 1%,the price of nitrogen fertilizer,phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer will change 5.671%,13.899% and 20.950%respectively in the same direction. Similarly,when the price of coal changes by 1%,the price of nitrogen fertilizer,phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer will change 4.492%,16.842% and19.963% respectively in the same direction.